The Broken Arm...Round 2

In response to yet another speculative article on Yahoo...

Lack of Investigation?

Would it not be easier to verify the circumstances of the broken arm on the first day than it would be to determine the circumstances of an alleged or supposed abduction? The broken arm story could be verified through medical records, doctor’s reports, stories from the parents and others with knowledge of the incident (given either at the time the injury happened or after), and potentially DHHS records. On the other hand, to rule out (or in) an abduction could entail crime scene processing and analysis, lie detector tests, interrogations/interviews, soliciting tips, and other law enforcement procedures and methods. The information gained from the latter does not necessarily change the record with regard to the broken arm. The police official did not say “we asked Justin what happened, and we believed him.” He said we conducted extensive interviews. Do you think he is lying? Do you think he has any reason to mislead you about the broken arm?

Criminal investigations are, as you said, dynamic. Determining whether or not an arm was broken in an accidental fall is not. From law enforcement's statement on day 1, we should be drawing the conclusion that the broken arm is not a part of the criminal investigation. Again, why are you willing to believe certain police statements, while dismissing the ones that don’t fit into your theory? I understand that the totality of circumstances has to be considered, but until police retract their statement and say the broken arm was not an accident, we should consider that matter resolved for purposes of speculation.

Rain and The Fall

I keep seeing the lack of rainfall and the date of the Justin’s last class used to assert that either the accident did not happen as he said it did, or that it happened before he said it did. What would compel Justin to all of a sudden seek medical treatment after waiting that long? Child abusers usually do not get treatment at all in order to avoid detection, or when they do bring the child in it is obvious that the injury is not recent. Furthermore, old injuries may be detected while the "new" ones are examined.

Trista and the Reynold’s family have been very vocal in this case, and I cannot help but notice that they have not disputed the rainfall aspect of Justin's story. Don't you think Waterville PD at least has the resources to figure out on what days it rained? Wouldn't the doctor at the emergency room, who was likely told the same story, know whether or not it rained the previous night? (I say the same story was likely told, because the police said they did extensive interviews before ruling the fall as accidental.)

It has been mentioned the fall happened up two or three small steps and that the DiPietros delayed seeking medical attention. I am by no means making excuses for the story given by Justin, but none of us are privy to any  information that contradicts it. His last class date could have been changed due to earlier cancellations, absences, or the need to complete driving time. We also know that Ayla was seen on Halloween by at least one person not related to the DiPietro family, and it would seem simple enough to verify with this person whether or not Ayla’s arm was already broken or seemingly hurting her at that time.

The last thing to consider, is that Trista could have her own dates wrong, and that’s the only information you have drawn your conclusions from. Justin says the incident occurred on a rainy night in November. Well, there were a few rainy nights in November.

Neighbors

You reported that one neighbor was unaware of Ayla’s existence; she didn’t know Ayla was there or that Justin even had a daughter. It’s important to point out that another neighbor, one who lived next door and could see into Ayla’s bedroom, did recall seeing the toddler. It was rather lopsided of you to include one account in your “story” while ignoring the other. A simple search performed on Google using the terms “Ayla Reynolds neighbor” brings up information about both witnesses.

Initial Suspicions

The doctor should very well have been suspicious of abuse initially, because broken bones in children are very often associated with abuse. Any time a child that young is seen for a broken arm, abuse has to be considered and ruled out. Doctors are also mandated reporters, and that particular doctor would be risking his/her license and open the door for a lawsuit if he/she failed to report suspected abuse. You are asking for information revealed after the fact to be considered in determining whether or not Ayla’s bone was broken accidentally. Trista's timeline indicates that Ayla had a left forearm fracture, which is  the most common fracture seen in children. The fracture frequently occurs when a child tries to break a fall with outstretched arms. Justin falling on top of her would add even more pressure to her little arms. Makes sense to me...and it obviously made sense to the treating physician. For those of you who question whether or not the break was accidental, don't you think there would be bruising or some other sign of direct trauma if Justin caused the injury with intent?

Implications

Child abuse charges could be a potential outcome, but the new “evidence” (life insurance) will probably not be used to determine whether or not the arm break was an accident. Life insurance policies, unfortunately, do not show up on x-rays. The doctor, and the bone specialist that Ayla saw on November 21^st, are supposed to possess the experience and knowledge to determine whether or not the trajectory of a fall could plausibly result in the injury presented. If you are further trying to say that Ayla’s broken arm would result in other children being removed from the home, that’s another one of your logical fallacies.

Wrap Up

Not only are you questioning the judgment of the police department, you are also questioning the judgment of the medical doctor(s) responsible for Ayla’s care. Let’s also not forget that you know absolutely NO details about the life insurance policy. Trista Reynolds says "In the same week Justin took Ayla from me, he took out a life insurance policy on Ayla."  That does not really narrow down a date.



As far as I’m concerned, the date the policy was written and the amount of the policy are pure speculation. If it turns out that the policy was taken out after the broken arm, then your whole theory falls to pieces.

You don’t know the terms of the policy; perhaps a certain number of payments would have to be made before one could collect a payout. I’m almost sure that it would prevent a murderer from collecting. With no body, the policy may lay out specific procedures. I don’t know those details either, and that’s one of the reasons why the life insurance remains a non-factor for me at this point. Don't hold your breath until law enforcement officially stamps "case closed" on the broken arm issue, because they have already said it was an accidental fall.

Police are investigating her disappearance. Not child abuse. Not a broken arm. They are trying to FIND AYLA.