Still no signs of Ayla... Not the slightest indication of where she may be...
Portions of the river continue to be searched, with no substantial findings...
McCausland continues to say the people in the home are not telling all that they know...
No suspects named, and no charges filed.
I would like to believe that law enforcement is making progress in this case; that they have a good idea of what happened and now they are just looking for evidence to back that up. Sadly, I can't believe that. They are searching locations for the simple purpose of ruling those locations out. Are they looking for Ayla per se, or are searching for evidence? Did they not gather information from cell phone pings, tips, and other investigative measures that would allow them to pinpoint specific areas?
To say that Ayla is likely dead requires more than the passage of time. Yet, the fact that she'd been missing for 166 days was one of the reasons given by Maine State Police as to why they doubt she'll be found alive.
I'm glad that the searching will continue...but I'm not okay with haphazardly choosing locations, declaring a child dead, and then basically acknowledging that your agency is at the same place they were on December 17 with this investigation. $500,000 plus has been spent. I think the public deserves to see a return on that investment!
If a cup of blood was truly found, Justin--as Ayla's parent and primary caregiver---would be in jail for child neglect/abuse/endangerment, or something associated with Ayla not receiving medical care for that injury. If anything was fraudulent about the life insurance policy, the same applies. Justin and anyone else involved would already be facing charges with regard to that. If there was any evidence of drug trafficking, again, we would already see people in jail.
There's nothing there. I think it's time to look at the other side more closely. There is no evidence to support a kidnapping, but OBVIOUSLY there's no evidence to support a murder either. If there was, the rivers wouldn't be searched with the same nonchalance used when I look for my other shoe or my car keys. McCausland would say what people aren't being forthcoming about. He isn't saying they lied, he's saying they haven't told everything they know. How does he know what someone else knows?
Where is Ayla?!
I don't know that it follows that Justin would be in jail if a cup of blood were found. A prosecutor would have to decide if s/he thought s/he could secure a conviction. Playing devil's advocate, what if someone else in the family harmed Ayla, cleaned up the blood, and told Justin she was in bed sleeping the 16th? I don't believe this, btw, but theoretically, he could have been tricked by someone he trusted. If no one comes forward and says what happened, a prosecutor may be loathe to charge him without evidence he knew of the (presumed) fatal injury. He didn't routinely take care of Ayla; she was often with his mother from what we have been told. I have never seen anyone publish who allegedly put Ayla to bed or checked on her the 16th, just that she was put to bed at 8 and checked on later. Without statements of who did what when, how do you decide he knew there was an injury and she needed medical attention on that occasion?
ReplyDeletetouche.
DeleteIn the realm of possibilities, any one of them "could" be fooling the others. I would tend to believe though that in a 7 month time span, whoever that is would start being suspected by the others, or in a "loose moment" let something slip. That they could all be in on a cover up does not pass my "smell test." Furthermore, I believe Phoebe's life experience and love for her children and grandchildren, would not allow for a cover up to happen. By the time many of us become grandmothers we are well aware of what possibilities could happen as a result of different things. Phoebe would have the foresight to have a sense of how bad things would be for everyone, and I totally believe she would have called 911 and made whoever did what face what happened, be honest, and deal with it. She would not have chosen this course of events. I do not believe Ayla was murdered and anyone else is ok with it. I do not believe they would cover up an accident knowing that it could make it look like murder and months on end of what they've been going through.
ReplyDeleteAs for the search, while it is awful the amount of time that has passed, it is a relief they didn't find anything where they were searching.
Space, I pretty much share your opinios.
DeleteI just do not believe that these 3 are covering for one another. For reasons I've stated many times.
I agree with Space and S.
DeleteFor one seemingly sane person to go crazy would require quite a bit of motive and insanity. For two people who have appeared sane in every way to be in on it is an extreme stretch. But three people? And it would have to be three people. It is a small house. There is no way that a child could be harmed and that could be hidden from the others. It is not the same as someone quickly and quietly coming in and out the house.
The theory that Ayla must be dead due to the loss of a cupful of blood just does not fly. A toddler has about two liters of blood. That is 8 cupfuls. The loss of one cupful would not cause death.
ReplyDeleteThen there is the issue of how LE calculated the amount of blood loss. They can only hazard a rough guestimate, given that it is also claimed that most of the blood was invisible to the naked eye at the time it was discovered by LE (using Luminol). So LE's ability to actually determine the amount of blood loss, based on invisible blood, is pretty iffy.
Then add in the fact that once Luminol is applied to an area it can damage the sample so badly that identification of the donor of the blood becomes impossible or iffy.
I bet all LE can say is that there was more than a cupful of something that showed up under the Luminol. But can't say much for certain beyond that. Hence, the reason why no charges have been brought against the father for neglect or abuse due to the blood loss.
I went to Peter and cried like a little bitch for him to remove a link that clearly showed I as well as 10 other people were emailed and told by Jeff about what was going to be revealed in the media in regards to Ayla being dead before the press conf. We sure didn't want people to know, mostly LE, that Jeff/trista are leaking info to us because then they wouldn't get any more info. I made peter take the link to Graces page (yeah me!!)down so people couldn't see I lied about getting the email and am part of the conspiracy. When Le gives Trista sensitive info she is not supposed to share it but we get sneak previews because all the work we do for her, like stupid ass letters that make no sense and fun stuff,especially the beatdowns of the opposing party and anyone who agrees with them. We even slander State Farm and make accusations they allow money laudering in their agencies!!So in short, that dumb Peter is now my official sock puppet! I pretty much own his blog and control shit! I am a big shot!
ReplyDelete@JohnP, It sounds like mutiny on the high seven seas to me.
DeleteJohn, oh dear, you are having your delusions back again. I thought that your new schizophrenia medicine would work better this time. Back to bed now before you make a further fool of yourself.
ReplyDeletehahahaha!!!!
DeleteThe loss of a cup of blood in a toddler would be about 12.5% of blood volume. That would not even result in symptoms of distress, never mind death.
ReplyDeletehttp://intensivecareunit.wordpress.com/2009/03/05/response-to-mild-blood-loss/
Even if the blood loss was 25% it would not cause death or even severe symptoms.
ReplyDeleteClass I. Loss of 15% or less of the total blood volume. This degree of blood loss is usually fully compensated by transcapillary refill. Because blood volume is maintained, clinical manifestations of hypovolemia are minimal or absent.
ReplyDeleteClass II. Loss of 15 to 30% of the blood volume. The clinical findings at this stage may include resting tachycardia and orthostatic changes in heart rate and blood pressure. However, resting tachycardia can be an inconsistent finding, and orthostatic changes in pulse and blood pressure are too insensitive to be considered reliable manifestations. A positive tilt test, defined as an increase in pulse rate greater than 30 beats/minute or a drop in systolic pressure greater than 30 mm Hg on assuming the upright position, can be used as corroborative evidence for blood loss, but a negative result has no meaning. When the tilt test is performed, the lower legs must be in a dependent position (sitting without legs dangling is inappropriate). Also, because changes in pulse and pressure are variable within the first minute after changing positions, a waiting period of at least 1 minute after changing positions is recommended before the vital signs are recorded.
Class III. Loss of 30 to 40% of the blood volume usually marks the onset of hypovolemic shock, with a decrease in blood pressure and urine output. There is evidence that the tachycardia-vasoconstrictor response to hemorrhage can be lost at this stage of blood loss. When this occurs, the decrease in blood pressure can be sudden and profound.
ReplyDeleteClass IV. Loss of more than 40% of blood volume is a harbinger of circulatory collapse. Therefore, when hypovolemia is accompanied by marked hypotension, oliguria, or other evidence of organ failure, prompt volume resuscitation is mandatory.
So basically, in order to establish that Ayla died as a result of blood loss in the basement, you would need to show greater than 40% blood loss.
ReplyDeleteSherlock, even if you assume she did not or may not have died, something traumatic obviously happened to cause her to lose that much blood. After 7 months, if it were an ordinary accident, the family would have stepped forward and explained it. The fact that they can't/won't suggests it is tied to her being missing and suggests at least that she is deceased.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to Ayla,
DeleteAlthough I disagree with you, you have definitely shed new light onto something!
First, LE is obviously hung up on blood found...although I don't think they could positively identify whose blood it was (possibly contaminated, or too many specimens to identify all of whom the blood or fluids belonged to as there are so many different specimens that could show up under luminol.) They may have found blood, which totaled a cup....near or around the *four drops* of Ayla's blood. (The family has acknowledged that Ayla had a cut...easily could have produced the four drops) Maybe LE believes that the people in the house that night know more than they are saying bc they truly believe that the cup full, which has not been proven to be Ayla's after 7 months, in their minds belongs to Ayla due to association and location of all the specimens found. But, in fact if Ayla had bled a cupful of blood, they would have found more evidence of it somewhere...leading out of that house. Again, there has been absolutely no evidence that Ayla died in that house. There is actually no evidence that Ayla left that house that night by the hands of her abductor...which is why they are relying on the unknown blood/fluid evidence to be Ayla's by the three people in the house that night...and the fact is LE has nothing else to go on....of course the rest of us all know there is definitely motive for someone to have taken her back... At this point, there is more motive than there is evidence....and still a 99% chance that she will be found alive.
1) The amount of blood claimed to be lost ---a cupful--would not have caused Ayla's death.
ReplyDelete2) It is far from convincing that LE even knows how much of Ayla's blood was in the basement. It was 4 small drops of blood from a cut plus some Luminol highlighted areas, according to the father's side.
3) The fact that LE has not arrested the father for neglect after 7 months strongly suggests that LE does not have solid evidence that Ayla received a major injury in the basement.
"The fact that they can't/won't suggests it is tied to her being missing and suggests at least that she is deceased".
DeleteIt could also suggest that there was NOT an amount of blood loss of this nature. You can not explain what did not happen.
LE has not ever said a cupful of blood to the public. Only Jeff and Trista have said that that is what LE has said.
DeleteThere is NO reason for any amount of a child's blood to be found on the floor without a reasonable explaination as to how it got there. Her blood is on the floor, period. That DID happen.
DeleteSherlock...LE confirmed the blood was "more than a small cut would produce", and the "amount" was troubling. The can prove this. It is how it got there that is the question.
DeleteAdj.1. troubling - causing distress or worry or anxiety; "distressing (or disturbing) news"; "lived in heroic if something distressful isolation"; "a disturbing amount of crime"; "a revelation that was most perturbing"; "a new and troubling thought"; "in a particularly worrisome predicament"; "a worrying situation"; "a worrying time"
Deletedistressful, distressing, disturbing, perturbing, worrying, worrisome
heavy - marked by great psychological weight; weighted down especially with sadness or troubles or weariness; "a heavy heart"; "a heavy schedule"; "heavy news"; "a heavy silence"; "heavy eyelids" (www.thefreedictionary.com)
Actually, anon ("LE confirmed...") LE never said (publicly anyway)the blood was "more than a small cut would produce" - that was a quote from Trista shortly after LE announced the blood. Later, when Jeff opened A4A, they changed from that to a cup.
Delete@There is NO reason for a child's blood to be found on the floor.
DeleteDo you have children?? And if so and there has never ever been blood on your floor from them than it just has not happened YET and trust me your day will come. Or you are raising them in bubble wrap.
Space is correct, LE has never said anything about the amount of blood found. They did say that the finding of blood was troubling, (not the amount) and that some of it was Ayla's. Many people attribute the "more than a small cut would produce" statement to LE, which is incorrect. You won't find a quote for that made by S. McCausland.
DeleteAs far as there is NO reason for a child's blood to be found on a floor.
I think it is pretty safe to say that most children experienced bleeding at some times in their lives. Some many times. Scraps, cuts, bloody noses, stepping on a sharp object, etc.
@Seriously, my children have on occasion bled, but I can tell you that I would know exactly what had happened! For someone to not know how there child's blood ended up on their floor would to me mean that they were not there when it happened or they were lying! JMO, but makes sense to me being a mother of three grown children and 5 grandchildren.
Delete@anon - it is my understanding that the blood was explained. Has McCausland said it wasn't?
DeleteThere is absolutely no way anyone could identify all blood uncovered by luimnol in any one home....and know who it belongs to and how it got there. Never in a million years, sorry.
DeleteThe spots that LE told Justin were Ayla's were explained.
DeleteThrowing another instance in the ring... Dryness and/or colds can lead to nose bleeds. Last few years, a virus spread around our town. Everyone described the same symptoms about the sore throat for a day, dry mouth for a day, then an all-of-a-sudden nose bleed that started and continued until it 'seemed like a cup of blood'. The nose bleed stops on its own and then the person feels fine. (Strange, but true story.)
DeleteI don't think that's what happened to Ayla, but they aren't even saying the suspected amount of blood all belongs to Ayla. When these people talk about it, they even back down and say that it wasn't all Ayla's blood. A little bit of blood goes a long way when it's being cleaned up.
The other point (items found in previous water search)... I believe they got what was tossed at a later date.
I believe Obscure is right about McCausland's (MSPs) statement. They should not assume that someone inside that home knows more than they've told. In fact, they should have turned that around and looked at what the family said 'due to assumption.'
I guess I am just having a hard time believing that LE would spend this much money and time searching Waterville if they had NO leads to make them believe they should look there, OR if they had ANY leads to make them believe Ayla had been taken and hidden somewhere. I would love to believe the latter, but law agencies just don't generally spend $500M searching one area with no leads that point them there.
ReplyDeleteLE has not spent 500 million dollars. 500 THOUSAND, big difference.
DeleteLE has said they are searching areas that "make sense" so that those areas can be "eliminated." You don't have to take my word for it, look it up for yourself. Pause----go look up the information.
Play (now you've found it)----So now that you know LE is doing exactly what you find hard to believe, what say you?
I understand what you're saying Charlie, but it's also hard to believe that they have any reasonably solid proof that Ayla is deceased and maintain that those who they "don't believe are telling all they know" are as free as anyone else, and (from prior pc) it's "way premature" to speculate about that changing.
DeleteUnless LE can be very certain that there is a life threatening amount of Ayla's blood in the basement, they should not have terminated their investigation and search for a live Ayla.
ReplyDeleteFor me, I would need to see every detail about the so-called blood and how it was collected, tested and analyzed, and every detail about how the Luminol was used and applied, before I would conclude that there really was a significant amount of Ayla's blood in the basement.
ReplyDeleteThat is what a court room and jury is for. LE in Maine is not required by law to release discovery like the Anthony case in Florida. It does not mean the evidence isn't there. The body will hopefully help them to determine how she died, and what type of injury caused the troubling amount of blood loss. A troubling amount of blood + the child's whose blood was found is missing = the child will most likely not be found alive. That's not even factoring in the life insurance policy that was taken out against her.
ReplyDeleteAgreed
DeleteDITTO!
Delete